Tennessee sports analytics, with receipts
Tennessee plays nobody for three weeks. Then Texas.
Tennessee's first three opponents average 98th in SP+. Its fourth is Texas, 6th. That 92 place step is the second steepest in the SEC.
Philadelphia has seven games left against Atlanta. It needs six of them.
Atlanta leads the National League East by four with 22 to play, and seven of Philadelphia's 22 are against Atlanta. That is the largest share of any chasing club in baseball. Split everything else and Philadelphia still has to win six of the seven.
Nine of Cam Ward's extra sacks belong to the line. Eight belong to him.
Cam Ward took 17 more sacks than a league average quarterback would have on the same 615 dropbacks. Nine trace to being pressured more often and eight to what he did once pressure arrived, and the split inverts on third and long.
Nashville SC has the best record in MLS. Their expected points rank 14th of 30.
Nashville leads MLS with 49 points from 21 games. Expected goals put their season at 29.7 points, 14th in the league. The gap is the largest per game in MLS history.
Tennessee's average fourth down came with 8.5 to go from its own 49, and the early downs are why.
The Titans went for it at a league average rate and converted the obvious spots at a league average rate. Where they kept arriving at fourth down was not average. 4th longest and 4th deepest of 32.
Tennessee's schedule is easy on average and brutal at the top.
Tennessee draws the 14th toughest schedule of 16 SEC teams by average opponent SP+. Four of those opponents project in the national top 13.
The Braves are 1-9 when Chris Sale gets two runs or fewer
Friday's 2-1 loss made it 10 of 23 Chris Sale starts with two runs or fewer of support, and the Braves are 1-9 in those games despite a 5.0 run season average.
Tennessee has a top 5 offense. Every other team with one has a top 10 defense.
Five teams project a top 5 SP+ offense for 2026. Four of them pair it with a defense ranked 9th or better. Tennessee's defense projects 44th.
Sacks Cost Cam Ward More Than Any QB in Football
Cam Ward's rookie season graded 27th of 27 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback. His 55 sacks erased 120.3 points of value, more than sacks cost any other quarterback in football.
Three Nights in Minneapolis and the Braves Never Led Once
Minnesota swept the series 6-4, 4-1, 4-2 and outscored Atlanta 14-7 without the Braves ever holding a lead, play by play, across all three games.
The Braves Lost to a Team They Outscore by 161 Runs
Atlanta lost 4-2 in Minneapolis despite a +115 run differential that ranks third in baseball, a 161 run gap over a Twins team sitting at -46.
Tennessee SP+ 2026: The Widest Offense-Defense Gap in the Top 25
SP+ has Tennessee 14th. The number is two very different teams averaged together.
The Braves' closer problem is hiding inside a healthy season line
Raisel Iglesias has a 3.02 ERA and 24 saves this season, but since July 6 his ERA is 5.87 and all three of his blown saves live there, hidden behind a 1.53 ERA before it.
The Braves go quiet more often when Chris Sale pitches
The Braves score two runs or fewer in 25 percent of games this season, but that rate jumps to 41 percent in Chris Sale's 22 starts, even though his own run support average sits above the team's.
Braves fans are arguing about the wrong stat.
Dylan Lee leads MLB in holds with zero saves. A teardown of what the save column actually measures, built from all 387 Braves relief appearances.
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