SP+ ranks Tennessee’s 2026 opponents 14th out of 16 SEC schedules by average strength. Only Auburn and Vanderbilt draw an easier schedule.
That average hides the shape. Texas projects 6th, Texas A&M 9th, LSU 10th, Alabama 13th. Four opponents in the national top 13, on one schedule.
Low mean, top heavy shape
SP+ rates a team's overall strength and higher is better, so a higher mean here means a tougher schedule. Tennessee's mean is 10.85. Four of its opponents still project in the national top 13. Source: CollegeFootballData, pulled 2026-08-23.
The mean is low because of one game. Kennesaw State projects 113th. Every other opponent lands inside the top 47. Drop the four top 13 teams as well and the six left over still average the 74th percentile nationally.
SP+ is Bill Connelly’s team rating and higher is better. These are preseason projections. Nobody has played a game, so treat this as a prior.
A team that wants a championship has to beat top 10 teams, and this schedule hands Tennessee three of them plus Alabama. What would have to be true is that the Vols win at least two of those four. Win the other seven and it still comes down to those games.