Start with the part that worked. Tennessee’s fourth down decisions were fine. The Titans went for it on 24.1 percent of their fourth downs, 16th of 32, against a league rate of 23.3. In the spots where going is the obvious call, fourth and 2 or shorter in opponent territory, they went 12 of 15. The league went 81.8 percent across the same spots. Tennessee went 80.0.
Nobody was leaving points on the field by punting.
The fourth downs themselves are the problem. Tennessee’s average fourth down came with 8.51 yards to go from 51.1 yards out. That is 4th longest and 4th deepest of 32 offenses. The league averaged 7.63 and 47.4. Only Cleveland and Las Vegas sat at or past Tennessee on both.
Up and right is the worst place to face a fourth down
Each dot is one offense's average fourth down. Tennessee sits at 8.51 yards to go from 51.1 yards out. League average is 7.63 and 47.4. Source: nflverse play by play, pulled 2026-08-24.
None of that is a fourth down decision. A team faces fourth and 9 from its own 49 because of what happened on first, second, and third.
Tennessee averaged minus 0.093 EPA per play on first and second down, 30th of 32, against a league average of plus 0.016. They converted 31.9 percent of third downs, last of 32, against a league 39.5. EPA counts the points a play adds or takes away against what an average play in that spot produces. A negative early down average means the offense went backward on the downs that set up everything after them.
Here is the number that ties it together. The average NFL drive started at its own 47.3 and reached fourth down at the opponent’s 47.4, so the average offense moved 5.3 yards forward before it had a decision to make. Tennessee started at its own 49.6, fifth best field position in football, and reached fourth down at its own 48.9. The Titans moved 0.7 yards backward. Only Arizona was worse. Only Arizona, Tennessee, and the Jets were negative at all.
The honest limit on that last number. Drive starts and fourth down spots are two different samples, because a drive that scores or turns the ball over never produces a fourth down. It is a comparison of averages, not a per drive gain, and it should be read that way. What makes it hold up is that every offense has the same structure, so the league relative gap is the part that means something. Tennessee started 2.3 yards closer to the end zone than an average team and arrived at fourth down 3.7 yards farther away.
Field position was not the excuse. The offense was.
The number to move is early down EPA. League average is the target and league average is not ambitious for a roster that spent a first overall pick on a quarterback. Get there and the fourth downs shrink on their own, because the offense stops arriving with the choice already gone. That is the offensive staff’s number and it is measurable every Sunday from Week 1.